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This week's question is simple: who is paying for live sport, and are investors still willing to fund it? Netflix and Comcast both report in the next three days. Meanwhile, private capital keeps circling clubs that need fresh money, with RedBird the latest name linked to the Saudi Pro League.
The Stories Shaping This Week
RedBird Reported to Be Eyeing 70% of Al-Nassr:
La Gazzetta dello Sport reports that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is considering selling a majority of Al-Nassr to investors led by Gerry Cardinale's RedBird Capital, owner of AC Milan. The report says 70% of the club would be valued at about 1 billion Saudi riyals ($267m), and Cristiano Ronaldo could take up to 20%. It puts Al-Nassr's debts at 800 million riyals ($213m) and says PIF is lining up sponsorship deals from companies it owns to help clear them. The paper describes RedBird's interest as early stage, with two meetings held so far. None of the parties has commented.
Why it matters: If this happens, it would be the clearest sign yet that the Saudi state wants outside capital, not just its own money, to carry the league's biggest clubs.
Netflix and Comcast Put Sports Spending to the Test:
Netflix reports third-quarter results after the US close today. The shares are down 25.5% this year, and the company announced about 1,000 job cuts on 14 October. Comcast follows before the open on Thursday. The consensus forecast is earnings per share of $0.99 on revenue of $29.2bn, and Peacock made its first quarterly profit last quarter, with $189m of EBITDA. Peacock also carries the NBA, whose season opens tonight.
Why it matters: These two results will show whether paying for live rights is lifting subscriptions and ad revenue, or simply adding cost.
Tour de France Rights Stay Free-to-Air Until 2032:
The European Broadcasting Union has extended its deal with A.S.O. and Unipublic by two years, to 2032. The deal covers the Tour de France, La Vuelta, Paris-Roubaix and the women's equivalents. Public broadcasters in markets including Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland will keep free-to-air coverage. Eurosport keeps a pan-European sub-licence, with TNT Sports in the UK and Ireland. No financial terms were disclosed.
Why it matters: Cycling has chosen reach over the highest bidder. That suits a sport that earns most of its money from sponsors, but it caps the media income teams can expect.
Jobe Bellingham Leads a $10m Round in Rezzil:
Manchester sports tech company Rezzil has raised $10m in a round led by Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jobe Bellingham. Existing backers include the Premier League, Tennis Australia's AO Startups and NBA Launchpad. Rezzil began with virtual reality training and is now building what it calls "movement intelligence". It has opened offices in London and Chicago, with former NBA executive Jake Loos leading the North American push, and plans to double its headcount to around 100.
Why it matters: Athlete-led rounds bring publicity and access to clubs. The real test is whether Rezzil turns that into recurring revenue from teams and broadcasters in the US.
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The Week Ahead
Over the next six days a pennant gets decided, the World Series and a new NBA season both start, and the NFL plays its first regular-season game in France. Here is what to circle.
Tuesday: One Win from the World Series
The Rays won 3-1 in Cleveland on Sunday and come home leading the series 3-2. Game 6 at Tropicana Field is at 8pm ET on Monday, which is 8am Tuesday in Hong Kong. If the Guardians win it, Game 7 is on Tuesday night. In Europe, PSG v Barcelone headlines the Champions League. Then the NBA season opens with a tripleheader on NBC and Peacock, including the 76ers at the defending champion Knicks. Netflix reports after the US close, the first of two tests this week of what live sport is worth to a streamer.
Wednesday: Arsenal's Trip to Munich
Bayern Munich v Arsenal is the game of the night. Real Madrid host Leipzig, and Manchester United go to Como in the 17:45 UK slot.Matches like these are why broadcasters paid for UEFA's bigger league phase.
Thursday: Peacock's Report Card
Comcast reports before the US open. Peacock made its first quarterly profit last quarter, $189m of EBITDA. The question now is whether that was a one-off or a trend. In Gqeberha, South Africa and Australia reach the final day of the second Test. England play Sri Lanka in Rawalpindi in the tri-series.
Friday: The Fall Classic Begins
The Brewers host Game 1 of the World Series at American Family Field at 8pm ET on FOX. Formula 1 starts its weekend in Austin with Kimi Antonelli 102 points clear.
The Weekend: Paris, Anfield and the Aviva
Saturday has Aston Villa v Manchester City at 12:30 BST and Chelsea v Spurs at 17:30 BST. Leinster host Munster in front of a big crowd at the Aviva at 18:00. UK clocks go back overnight. On Sunday, the Steelers and Saints play at the Stade de France at 13:30 UK time. Liverpool v Brighton kicks off at 14:00 GMT, and the US Grand Prix starts at 8pm UK.
One to Circle (The Sports Edge View): Paris on Sunday. Expect plenty of coverage of the crowd and the spectacle. The real test is whether French sponsors and broadcasters show up, because that decides whether this market becomes a fixture or a one-off.
Sports Edge Index Market Movers
Top Three Gainers:
Planet Fitness $PLNT ( ▲ 0.13% )
Price: $52.89 | Week: +10.4% | YTD: -51.2% | LTM: -43.9%
The move tracked a wider rebound in sportswear and consumer names across the index this week. Even after the bounce, the shares are down 51.2% this year.
V.F. Corporation $VFC ( ▲ 1.87% )
Price: $17.14 | Week: +8.5% | YTD: -5.2% | LTM: +20.0%
On 13 October, Truist upgraded the Vans and The North Face owner to Buy and raised its target from $14 to $20. Piper Sandler moved to Overweight with a target raised from $16 to $20. CNBC's Jim Cramer then backed the stock, citing early signs of a Vans recovery.
Garmin $GRMN ( ▲ 1.46% )
Price: $286.16 | Week: +7.3% | YTD: +41.1% | LTM: +14.9%
The shares rose 3.0% on 13 October after Garmin launched its third-generation MARQ luxury watch range and made two aviation announcements. The stock is up 41.1% this year.
Top Three Fallers:
NIP Group $NIPG ( ▼ 2.24% )
Price: $6.70 | Week: -29.8% | YTD: -77.6% | LTM: -84.8%
On 16 October, shareholders of the Ninjas in Pyjamas owner approved raising its authorised share capital from 2 billion to 10 billion shares. That does not mean new shares will be issued, but it gives the board room to issue far more equity.
Zepp Health $ZEPP ( ▼ 5.14% )
Price: $2.92 | Week: -19.1% | YTD: -89.2% | LTM: -94.3%
The shares are down 89.2% this year, one of the steepest falls in the index.
GameSquare ($GAME)
Price: $2.56 | Week: -18.2% | YTD: -16.9% | LTM: -52.9%
GameSquare presented at two New York investor conferences between 12 and 15 October. AI-linked stocks took the hardest hit from this week's inflation scare.
Category Best and Worst:
Sports Teams & Franchises:
Best $MSGS ( ▲ 3.35% ) Week: -0.8%
Worst $JVTSF ( ▼ 4.69% ) Week: -5.2%
Sports Betting & iGaming:
Best $GMVHY ( ▼ 0.17% ) Week: +2.4%,
Worst $PENN ( ▲ 1.7% ) Week: -4.5%.
Fantasy Sports & Esports:
Best $MSGM ( ▼ 2.83% ) Week: +0.0%,
Worst $NIPG ( ▼ 2.24% ) Week: -29.8%.
Sports Apparel & Equipment:
Best $VFC ( ▲ 1.87% ) Week: +8.5%,
Worst $UAA ( ▲ 2.52% ) Week: -3.4%.
Sports Broadcasting & Media:
Best $CMCSA ( ▲ 2.1% ) Week: +5.9%,
Worst $FUBO ( ▲ 2.11% ) Week: -7.9%.
Sports Digital Streaming:
Best $AMZN ( ▲ 0.07% ) Week: +1.1%,
Worst $NET ( ▼ 1.98% ) Week: -14.8%.
Sports Technology & Data Analytics:
Best $IBM ( ▲ 2.34% ) Week: +4.1%,
worst $SRAD ( ▼ 0.33% ) Week: -5.1%.
Sports Infrastructure, Ticketing & Ancillary Services:
Best $MTN ( ▲ 0.29% ) Week: +2.7%,
Worst $SEAT ( ▲ 1.46% ) Week: -3.2%.
Sports Health & Wearables:
Best $PLNT ( ▲ 0.13% ) Week: +10.4%,
Worst $ZEPP ( ▼ 5.14% ) Week: -19.1%.
For information only. Not investment advice.
